[1]曾桂婷.新疆奎屯柳沟垦区积温变化特征初探[J].黑龙江农业科学,2018,(01):33-36.[doi:10.11942/j.issn1002-2767.2018.01.0033]
　ZENG Gui-ting.Preliminary Study on Accumulated Temperature Variation of Liugou Reclamation Area in Kuitun City of Xinjiang[J].HEILONGJIANG AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES,2018,(01):33-36.[doi:10.11942/j.issn1002-2767.2018.01.0033]
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新疆奎屯柳沟垦区积温变化特征初探

《黑龙江农业科学》[ISSN:1002-2767/CN:23-1204/S] 卷: 期数: 2018年01期 页码: 33-36 栏目: 出版日期: 2018-01-10
Title:
Preliminary Study on Accumulated Temperature Variation of Liugou Reclamation Area in Kuitun City of Xinjiang
文章编号:
1002-2767（2018）01-0033-04
作者:
曾桂婷
兵团第七师125团农业技术服务中心，新疆 奎屯 833200
Author(s):
ZENG Gui-ting
Agricultural Technology Service Center of Corps Seventh Division 125 Groups,Kuitun,Xinjiang 833200
关键词:
积温; 变化趋势; 保证率
Keywords:
accumulated temperature;  change trend;  guarantee rate
分类号:
P468.0+21
DOI:
10.11942/j.issn1002-2767.2018.01.0033
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为探明新疆奎屯柳沟垦区近20年积温变化趋势及其对农业生产的影响，利用新疆奎屯柳沟垦区1998-2017年的积温资料，通过五日滑动平均法、年际变化曲线、累积距平等方法对其进行统计分析。结果表明：历年平均稳定≥0 ℃积温为4 200.1 ℃，持续期为243 d。≥0 ℃积温年际变化存在3～4年的变化周期，≥0 ℃积温累积距平曲线整体也呈现出下降的趋势。稳定≥10 ℃积温平均为3 844.4 ℃，持续期为184 d。≥10 ℃积温累积距平变化情况与≥0 ℃积温基本一致，存在约4年的变化周期，累积距平曲线整体呈现出减少的变化趋势。在80%的保证率下，稳定≥0 ℃积温值为4 116.2 ℃，稳定≥10 ℃积温值为3 769.5 ℃。
Abstract:
In order to explore the change trend of the accumulated temperature in the last 20 years of Liugou Reclamation Area in Kuitun City of Xinjiang and its influence on the agricultural production.Based on the accumulated temperature data of Liugou Reclamation Area in Kuitun city from 1998 to 2017,the 5 day moving average method,interannual variation curve and cumulative distance method were used for statistical analysis.The results showed that the accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ over the years was 4 200.1 ℃,and the duration was 243 d.The accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ had 3~4 years period of interannual variation,accumulated temperature accumulative offset curve ≥0 ℃ also showed a downward trend.The stable accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ over the years was 3 844.4 ℃,and the duration was 184 d.The accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ anomaly changes with the accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ was basically the same,there was a interannual variation period for 4 years,the cumulative anomaly curve overall showed a decreasing trend.In the 80% guarantee rate,the stable accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ was 4 116.2 ℃,the stable accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ was 3 769.5 ℃.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

收稿日期：2017-12-20作者简介：曾桂婷（1983-），女，山东省郓城县人，学士，工程师，从事气象观测和预报工作。E-mail：zgt0920@126.com。

更新日期/Last Update: 2018-02-28