WU Li,XIE Wenhuan,LI Yan,et al.Analysis of Drought Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2021[J].HEILONGJIANG AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES,2023,(09):91-97.[doi:10.11942/j.issn1002-2767.2023.09.0091]
黑龙江省2000－2021 年干旱变化特征及影响因素分析
- Title:
- Analysis of Drought Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2021
- 文章编号:
- 16
- Keywords:
- drought; drought trend; drought frequency; Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI）; Heilongjiang Province
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 黑龙江省是我国粮食主产区，20世纪气温上升较明显，且降雨分布不均，易受干旱灾害影响。为了解黑龙江省不同地区耕地干旱多年变化特征、发生频率、发展趋势及引起干旱变化的气象因素，基于温度植被干旱指数（TVDI），结合趋势分析方法，探究黑龙江省2000－2021年来干旱变化和发展趋势特征，并探讨引起省内干旱变化的主要气象因素之间的关系。结果表明，2000－2010年黑龙江省大兴安岭、三江平原、张广才岭、松嫩平原4个区的TVDI值较高，较易发生干旱，2013和2019年属于湿润年，其中松嫩平原多年处于干旱状态；按月份分析，5月和9月易处于干旱状态，特别是松嫩平原区，7月常处于湿润状态，表明省内春秋易发生干旱，夏季较湿润；从干旱发生频率分析，大兴安岭、三江平原、张广才岭和松嫩平原干旱发生频率分别为7000%、80.91%、85.45%和92.73%，强度以轻旱和中旱为主，研究时间段内仅有松嫩平原有10%概率的重旱发生，该地春季干旱发生频率和强度最大；黑龙江省22年来干旱趋势呈基本稳定偏减少，其中东部有干旱趋势轻度增加像元；月干旱趋势中，6月有明显增加的趋势，面积占比达61.08%，5月、7月、8月、9月以基本稳定趋势为主。黑龙江省TVDI变化主要取决于降雨量，年TVDI与年降雨量呈极显著负相关关系，TVDI与气温关系不显著。
- Abstract:
- Heilongjiang Province is the main crop producing area in China. In the 20th century， the temperature rose obviously， and the rainfall distribution was uneven， which was vulnerable to drought disasters. In order to understand the characteristics， frequency， development trend and meteorological factors of field drought in different regions of Heilongjiang Province， based on the temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI )， combined with the trend analysis method， the characteristics of drought change and development trend in Heilongjiang Province in the past 22 years were explored， and the main meteorological factors causing drought change in the province and the relationship between meteorological drought index were discussed. The results showed that the TVDI of the four districts in 2000-2010 was higher and more prone to drought. In 2013 and 2019， it was a humid year， and the Songnen Plain in the four districts was in a drought state for many years. From the month analysis， May and September were prone to drought， especially in the Songnen Plain， and July was often in a wet state， indicating that the province was prone to drought in spring and autumn， and wet in summer. The frequency of drought in Daxing′an Mountains and Xiaoxing′an Mountains， Sanjiang Plain， Zhangguangcai Mountains and Songnen Plain were 70.00%， 80.91%， 85.45% and 92.73%， respectively， during the 110 months of crop growth season. The intensity was mainly light drought and moderate drought. During the study period， only the Songnen Plain had a 10% probability of severe drought. The frequency and intensity of spring drought in this area were the highest， and the drought in Daxing′an Mountains and Xiaoxing′an Mountains was the least affected. In the past 22 years， the drought trend in Heilongjiang Province has been basically stable and decreasing， and the drought trend in the eastern part has increased slightly. In the monthly drought trend， there was a significant increase in June， and the area accounted for 61.08%. In May， July， August and September， the trend was basically stable. The change of TVDI in Heilongjiang Province mainly depended on rainfall， and meteorological drought will lead to agricultural drought. The annual TVDI was negatively correlated with annual rainfall， and all pass the extremely significant test of P<0.01. The relationship between TVDI and temperature was not significant， which is related to the land type studied in this paper.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期：2023-04-26