TANG Liyuan,ZHAO Yinghui,ZHANG Hui.GIS-Based Risk Assessment Model of Agricultural Flood Disaster in Sanjiang Plain〖MZ）〗〖JZ）〗〖WT〗〖KH-*2D〗[J].HEILONGJIANG AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES,2023,(09):98-104.[doi:10.11942/j.issn1002-2767.2023.09.0098]
基于 GIS 的三江平原农业洪涝灾害风险评估模型
- Title:
- GIS-Based Risk Assessment Model of Agricultural Flood Disaster in Sanjiang Plain〖MZ）〗〖JZ）〗〖WT〗〖KH-*2D〗
- 文章编号:
- 17
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为促进三江平原地区防洪设施建设，降低因洪涝灾害导致的农业损失，建立灾害风险评估模型，划定灾害风险等级，提出因地制宜的防灾措施建议。综合2010-2020年三江平原地区的水文、地理、气象及社会经济等数据资料，构建农业洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系，利用层次分析法、加权几何平均法得出风险评估值，结合ArcGIS划立县域维度的洪涝风险等级分区并进行风险评估区划。结果表明，三江平原西部致灾因子危险性较低，承灾体易损性由东北到西南降低；三江平原孕灾环境敏感性在西南方向较高，东北方向较低，防灾减灾能力普遍较弱。三江平原地区农业洪涝灾害综合风险等级中部较低，东部和西部较高。基于致灾因子、承灾体、孕灾环境三方面的考量，提出洪涝灾害应对措施。通过建立三江平原农业洪涝灾害风险指标体系，利用空间分析模型划定三江平原农业洪涝灾害风险等级，依据风险区划结果为当地政府抗洪措施提供决策参考。
- Abstract:
- To facilitate flood control facilities construction in the Sanjiang Plain Region and mitigate agricultural losses caused by flooding disasters， we established a comprehensive disaster risk assessment model. This model aimed to delineate specific disaster risk levels and recommend region-tailored disaster prevention measures. To construct the agricultural flood disaster risk assessment index system， we incorporated data spanning from 2010 to 2020， covering hydrological， geographical， meteorological， and socio-economic aspects of the Sanjiang Plain Region. The risk assessment values were determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Weighted Geometric Mean Method. Additionally， ArcGIS was employed to partition the flood risk levels at the county level and conduct risk assessment zoning. Our findings indicated that the hazard risk was relatively low in the western part of the Sanjiang Plain. Vulnerability of disaster-receiving bodies decreased from the northeast to the southwest. Furthermore， disaster-prone environments demonstrated higher susceptibility in the southwest direction compared to the northeast. Overall， the region exhibited weak disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. The comprehensive risk level of agricultural flood disasters was relatively low in the central part of the Sanjiang Plain， while it was higher in the eastern and western regions. Based on a thorough analysis of causative factors， disaster-receiving bodies， and disaster-prone environments， we proposed flood disaster response measures. By establishing the agricultural flood disaster risk index system and employing spatial analysis models to outline the risk levels， the results of flood risk zoning serve as valuable theoretical references for local government decision-making regarding flood control measures in the Sanjiang Plain Region.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期：2023-03-17